Dutch citizens and businesses yearn for stability

On Wednesday, October 29, 2025, the Dutch will go to the polls once again to elect a new House of Representatives. These elections should put an end to the failed experiment of an "extra-parliamentary" cabinet consisting of four right-wing parties that were forced to cooperate after the previous election. After several years of political turmoil and stagnation, Dutch citizens and businesses are looking forward to having a stable cabinet again that will tackle the country's major challenges, such as the housing shortage, migration, health care, defense and security, nitrogen, and the energy transition. However, it remains to be seen whether there will be a more stable cabinet. Regardless of political affiliation, the next cabinet will have to make drastic cuts to meet all its obligations. Therefore, the summer and fall will be exciting and disconcerting because which political party will be able to resist the temptation of polarization and populist messages?

What is the situation?

• Relief after departure of Wilders' PVV

Since the departure of Geert Wilders’ PVV, the Netherlands has a caretaker cabinet consisting of the VVD, NSC, and BBB. These parties are only permitted to address ongoing issues until a new cabinet is formed after the upcoming elections. However, they breathed a sigh of relief after Wilders's departure. They say they still see opportunities to implement some of their plans now.

• This is a great responsibility for the outgoing cabinet

After all, the outgoing cabinet must try to implement a number of plans. This also means that these parties are responsible for sensitive issues affecting their supporters, such as nitrogen problems and agricultural policy. The cabinet must also ensure that a budget for the coming year is in place by the third Tuesday in September. That will be difficult even without "new" plans. All sorts of commitments were made during the past year that need to be funded. This inevitably calls for cuts. Finance Minister Heinen (VVD) will have to reach an agreement with the ministers and, especially, the party leaders of the VVD, NSC, and BBB. This could lead to unexpected outcomes. It may also result in this cabinet passing the real pain points on to the next cabinet. Austerity and policy reversals are inevitable, limiting the ability of parties to make too many promises during the campaign. The highest impact is expected on education and research, infrastructure, social security and public transport. But also on further cuts in the national civil service. Sectors such as alcohol, tobacco and gambling fear tax and duty increases, on top of already announced measures.

• Austerity hangs like a dark cloud over the campaign

The winners of the previous elections (mainly the PVV, NSC, and BBB) knew they were going to govern with "empty pockets." This time, however, everyone knows the situation is even worse. Drastic cuts are needed to finance the huge increase in NATO contributions and the recently proposed increase in the EU budget, for example. Political parties must find a balance between winning votes with promises and maintaining their credibility when forming a cabinet that must make cuts. It is likely that parties that are not expected to govern will make the biggest promises.

• The Christian Democrats are rising fast, but will it be enough?

In the last election, the CDA lost almost its entire constituency to Pieter Omtzigt's NSC and the Boer Burger Beweging. Meanwhile, the balance of power is shifting. In all polls, the CDA has made impressive gains (rising from three seats to about twenty-one). This makes the Christian Democrats an undeniable political force again. However, Geert Wilders' PVV (with about 29 seats in the polls) and Frans Timmermans' GroenLinks/PvdA (with about 28 seats) are now in a tight race. With virtually everyone ruling out Wilders for a new government, forming a majority coalition of at least 76 seats will be very difficult. Those seeking stability might prefer a large centrist coalition. This would have to include GroenLinks/PvdA, CDA, VVD (with about 20 seats), and D66 (with about nine seats). However, at the moment, the prospect of cooperation between Timmermans and Yesilgöz (VVD) seems nearly impossible. Timmermans needs to prove himself with his new fusion party, and for now, it seems to lean toward the radical left rather than moderate social democracy. Meanwhile, Dilan Yesilgöz is making frantic attempts to prove herself the leader of the right. This only increases polarization. Yesilgöz is seeking the flank in order to compete with Wilders, who is still leading in the polls. However, in doing so, she too is losing her connection with the center and her position as the obvious power party that the VVD was under Rutte for years.

Thus, to achieve the highly desired stability, the Christian Democrats must gain more. For CDA leader Bontenbal, who has remained unscathed thus far, there is much to gain.

What should we watch out for in the coming months?

First, the battle is about the budget: What financial leeway is really available? How will the demands on purchasing power, defense, care, energy, and education be funded? Will solutions be found under social and electoral pressure without losing fiscal discipline? Where will the blows fall? What legacy will that leave for the next administration?

How can businesses and organizations exert influence?

In recent weeks, many advocacy groups have focused their attention on the parties' program committees. However, almost all parties now have their draft programs ready. Influence now goes through party congresses during the campaign and the formation process. The outcomes of the budget negotiations are more concrete, however. It is important to actively monitor whether funding all obligations does not come at the expense of other sectors. You can influence this process around the presentation of the budget on Prince's Day and during the budget debates. We are happy to help you with this.