The Netherlands Moves Towards a Minority Government: What the Anticipated Jetten Cabinet Means for International Stakeholders

The Netherlands is on the verge of an uncommon political configuration. If coalition talks proceed as expected, an anticipated minority cabinet led by D66 leader Rob Jetten, formed by D66, VVD and CDA, will be sworn in on 23 February. For the first time in years, the country would be governed without a built-in parliamentary majority. From a public affairs perspective, this marks a fundamental shift. Political influence will no longer be concentrated within government alone, but distributed across parliament, increasing the strategic importance of engagement beyond the coalition.

A compressed path to government

The coming weeks are decisive. By the end of January, the three parties aim to finalise a concise coalition framework outlining political priorities rather than detailed policy packages. Early February will focus on ministerial appointments and exploratory talks with opposition parties to test parliamentary support. If successful, the cabinet is expected to take office on 23 February.For international companies and organisations, this compressed timeline underlines the need for early positioning. Once the cabinet is installed, legislative negotiations will move quickly and often unpredictably.

Governing through negotiation, not numbers

With fewer than half of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives, the anticipated Jetten cabinet will need to build issue-based majorities.

This creates a dual dependency:

• Right-wing opposition parties — including JA21, BBB, and smaller splinter groups — will exert influence on migration, agriculture, regulatory pressure and public order.

• GreenLeft–Labour (GroenLinks-PvdA), the largest opposition party, will be indispensable on climate policy, energy transition, labour market reform and social investment.

As a result, policy outcomes will be shaped through continuous parliamentary negotiation, rather than fixed coalition discipline. For stakeholders, understanding these shifting alliances is essential.

The PVV split: fragmentation creates leverage

An additional factor reshaping the landscape is the internal split within the Party for Freedom (PVV). The party, long dominated by its founder Geert Wilders, fractured after internal disagreements over leadership and strategy.

The breakaway MPs have formed a new parliamentary faction led by Gidi Markuszower. Freed from the PVV’s rigid opposition stance, this group is now able to negotiate selectively with the minority cabinet, aiming to secure parts of the PVV agenda — particularly on migration and security.

From a public affairs standpoint, this fragmentation increases complexity but also creates new entry points for dialogue, especially on dossiers where pragmatic compromises are possible.

Expected policy priorities

While negotiations are ongoing, several themes are likely to dominate the cabinet’s agenda:

• Economic stability and competitiveness, with a focus on innovation, digitalisation and investment security

• A pragmatic approach to climate and energy policy, balancing ambition with parliamentary feasibility

• Housing and infrastructure, driven by urgency and broad political support

• Migration policy combining control with legal robustness, reflecting pressure from both left and right

Change is expected to be incremental rather than radical — but directionally significant.

What this means for international companies and organisations

For international stakeholders, the anticipated Jetten cabinet requires a more sophisticated public affairs strategy:

• Engagement must extend beyond the cabinet to opposition parties and parliamentary committees.

• Timing and sequencing of interventions will be critical as political coalitions shift per dossier.

• Well-substantiated, solution-oriented proposals are more likely to gain traction in a fragmented parliament.

As a member of United Government Affairs, Lindblom Public Relations & Public Affairs closely monitors these developments and supports international organisations in navigating the evolving Dutch political landscape. In a system governed by negotiation, insight, timing and awareness for changing coalitions are decisive assets.