With no clear majority for any political party whether in government or not, France’s historical inability to seek political compromise has created unprecedented uncertainty for businesses who must seek new paths of influence.
Single party governance has been the norm in France for over 65 years. Aside from two short periods known as cohabitations, where the Prime Minister and the President hailed from different parties, the country has never known a period without at least a relative majority party in parliament. This summer, the tide changed.
France is discovering what many of its European neighbours have grown accustomed to: the need to form a coalition to ensure constructive parliamentary work and the smooth adoption of new laws. A country set in tradition, its politicians seem unable to operate in this new world of compromise and negotiation.
This world is not foreign to the new French Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, who built his reputation as a negotiator for the European union. However, his personal expertise does not appear to be trickling down to either his newly formed government nor parliament. The right and centre right might be the dominant parties in government but they carry only 212 out of the necessary 289 votes to guarantee a majority in parliament, and their various factions are divided and suffering from serious infighting. The upcoming discussions on the budget will be the first to show the extent of the obstacles that must be overcome.
This scenario and the choice of the left not to engage in any conversations with the government has opened up a path for the far right. Currently portraying itself as a party of negotiation and governance, its agenda and priorities slowly creeping into mainstream politics. The National Rally has achieved what many believed would be impossible, its members of parliament hold the deciding votes and the Government is in many ways at its mercy.
For businesses there is no longer a clear path of influence. Each political party has a role to play and must be courted in a specific manner. Although this might create a sense of uncertainty, France’s greatest weakness is a real opportunity to engage new stakeholders and widen the scope of political discussions in the hope of finding a common path to achieve the necessary reforms.
One certainty remains : the current impression of a total lack of political will from all sides to work together is only reinforcing the instability faced by business and stakeholders. France must learn a lesson from its European neighbours if it wishes to turn its political predicament into an opportunity for growth and progress without losing its international standing and influence.
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